FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
| Title | ΤΕΧΝΙΚΕΣ ΠΡΟΒΛΕΨΕΩΝ / FORECASTING TECHNIQUES |
| Code | 357 |
| Faculty | Engineering |
| School | Mechanical Engineering |
| Cycle / Level | 1st / Undergraduate |
| Teaching Period | Spring |
| Coordinator | Georgios Tagaras |
| Common | Yes |
| Status | Active |
| Course ID | 20002161 |
Programme of Study: UPS of School of Mechanical Engineering
Registered students: 24
| Orientation | Attendance Type | Semester | Year | ECTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | Elective Course belonging to the selected specialization (Elective Specialization Course) | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Industrial Management | Elective Course belonging to the selected specialization (Elective Specialization Course) | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Academic Year | 2018 – 2019 |
| Class Period | Spring |
| Instructors from Other Categories | |
| Weekly Hours | 4 |
| Class ID | 600131087
|
Class Schedule
| Building | Πολυτεχνείο - πτέρυγα Β (Πολιτικών Μηχ.) |
| Floor | Όροφος 1 |
| Hall | 561-562 (89) |
| Calendar | Τετάρτη 14:00 έως 16:00 |
| Building | Πολυτεχνείο - πτέρυγα Β (Πολιτικών Μηχ.) |
| Floor | Όροφος 1 |
| Hall | 555 (87) |
| Calendar | Πέμπτη 14:00 έως 16:00 |
Mode of Delivery
- Face to face
Digital Course Content
- e-Study Guide https://qa.auth.gr/en/class/1/600131087
- eLearning (Moodle):
Language of Instruction
- Greek (Instruction, Examination)
General Competences
- Apply knowledge in practice
- Retrieve, analyse and synthesise data and information, with the use of necessary technologies
- Make decisions
- Advance free, creative and causative thinking
Course Content (Syllabus)
Importance of forecasting, forecasting categories, key forecasting steps. Data preparation: missing values - calendar adjustments - price indices - chi-squared goodness-of-fit test. Evaluating forecast accuracy. Confidence intervals for forecasting. Moving average methods. Exponential smoothing methods (Holt, Brown, Holt-Winter models). Exponential smoothing with correction parameter (Gardner-McKenzie model). Classification of exponential smoothing methods by Gardner-McKenzie and Pegel. Simple and multiple linear regression. Non-linear regression. Computer forecasting programs. Time series decomposition methods. Intermittent demand forecasting models (Croston, SBA). Critical methods: the Delphi method and the forecast by analogy method.
Keywords
forecasting, timeseries analysis
Educational Material Types
- Notes
- Slide presentations
- Book
- Computer software
Use of Information and Communication Technologies
Use of ICT
- Use of ICT in Course Teaching
- Use of ICT in Laboratory Teaching
- Use of ICT in Communication with Students
Description
Utilization of specialized computer software for problem solving.
Posting of announcements, notes and information regarding the course at eLearning
Course Organization
| Activities | Workload | ECTS | Individual | Teamwork | Erasmus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lectures | 52 | 1.7 | |||
| Reading Assigment | 74 | 2.5 | |||
| Interactive Teaching in Information Center | 6 | 0.2 | |||
| Written assigments | 13 | 0.4 | |||
| Exams | 5 | 0.2 | |||
| Total | 150 | 5 |
Student Assessment
Description
The final grade Β is a combination of the grades in the final written examination (T), the midterm examination (Π) and the project/homework (E) as follows:
• If either Τ < 4,5 or (Τ+Π)/2 < 4, then the final grade is Β= (0,8)Τ.
• In every other case the final grade is Β = max {(0,6)Τ + (0,3)Π + (0,2)Ε, (0,8)T}.
Student Assessment methods
- Written Exam with Short Answer Questions (Summative)
- Written Assignment (Summative)
- Written Exam with Problem Solving (Summative)
Bibliography
Course Bibliography (Eudoxus)
1. Πετρόπουλος Φ., Ασημακόπουλος Β., 2013. Επιχειρησιακές προβλέψεις, Εκδόσεις Συμμετρία.
2. Αγιακλογλου Χ., Οικονομου Γ., 2004. Μέθοδοι Προβλέψεων και Ανάλυσης Αποφάσεων, Εκδόσεις Μπένου.
Additional bibliography for study
1. Hanke, J., Wichern, D., 2009. Business Forecasting, 9th edition, Pearson Education Inc.
2. Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S., Hyndman, R., 1998. Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3rd edition, Wiley.
3. Mendenjall, W., Sincich, T., 1996. A second course in statistics: regression analysis, 5th edition, Prentice Hall.
4. Montgomery, D., Runger, G., Hubele, N., 2007. Engineering Statistics, Wiley.
Last Update
29-09-2019
