Learning Outcomes
Upon successful completion of this course, students will be able to:
Apply Descriptive Statistics:
Calculate and interpret measures of central tendency (e.g., mean, median, quartiles), dispersion (e.g., variance, standard deviation), and shape (e.g., skewness and kurtosis coefficients) for atmospheric data.
Create and analyze graphical representations of data (e.g., histograms, box plots, cumulative frequency diagrams) for effective visualization of atmospheric phenomena.
Understand and Utilize Theoretical Distributions and Stochastic Processes:
Describe the fundamental principles of probability and the concepts of random variables.
Identify and apply the properties of basic theoretical distributions (e.g., Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson, Normal) and Markov chains to problems in atmospheric sciences.
Analyze Atmospheric Time Series Data:
Apply descriptive and explanatory methods for pairs of time series (e.g., scatter plots, correlation, linear regression) to detect relationships between atmospheric variables.
Perform trend analyses on meteorological/climatological data using appropriate methods (e.g., Moving Average, Cumulative Differences, T-test, Mann-Kendall) and identify abrupt climatic changes.
Apply Statistical Inference and Hypothesis Testing:
Formulate and test statistical hypotheses, including homogeneity tests (e.g., Alexandersson test, Bartlett's test, Double Mass Curve method), using appropriate coefficients of determination.
Implement Advanced Multivariate Methods:
Utilize and interpret the results from multivariate data analysis methods, such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Canonical Correlation Analysis, and Cluster analysis, to understand complex atmospheric systems.
Evaluate Climate Models:
Apply methods for the estimation and evaluation of climate models using appropriate tools (e.g., ROC Curves, Taylor Diagrams) for validating and comparing predictions.
Course Content (Syllabus)
Introductory concepts and Descriptive Statistics. Statistical Variables – Measures of Central Tendency (mean, median, quartiles, etc.) – Measures of Dispersion (variance, standard deviation, etc.) – Measures of Shape (skewness and kurtosis coefficients). Methods of graphical representation and their explanation (charts, histograms, box plots, cumulative frequency diagrams). Basic principles of probability. Random Variables. Basic Theoretical Distributions and Stochastic Processes (Bernoulli Distribution, Binomial Distribution, Poisson Distribution, Hypergeometric Distribution, Normal Distribution N(μ, σ²) – Gauss Distribution, Geometric Distribution, Negative Binomial Distribution (Polya), Markov Chains (order k)). Descriptive and explanatory methods for pairs of time series (scatter plots, correlation, correlation coefficients, linear regression, covariance). Introduction to Statistical Hypothesis Theory (hypothesis testing, statistical hypothesis determination coefficients) – Homogeneity Hypothesis Tests – Alexandersson Homogeneity Test, Double Cumulative Curve Method, Bartlett’s Test. Trends in time series of meteorological – climatological data, Variations, Abrupt climate changes, Moving Average, Cumulative Differences, T-test, Mann Kendall. Multivariate data analysis methods: Principal Component Analysis, Canonical Correlation Analysis, Cluster Analysis. Methods for estimating and evaluating climate models (ROC Curves – Taylor Diagrams).